There's Backwards and there's . . .
There's Backwards and there's . . .
Last Updated:
November 03, 2000
After a year of running the Bill Clinton Joke-of-the-Day Page, I've found myself all full of opinions and observations that just don't make it into the daily jokes. So I'm dropping them down here on a biweekly basis. It's open for your ideas and opinions as well, but I'm still the editor around here.
Index of all columns.
Email: cjburke@io.com
In this issue:
Time is a precious commodity. So precious that had I had more of it, I might have posted these predicitons a month ago and seemed like a genius (or a complete moron) instead of publishing them just scant days before the election and look like I'm jumping on the bandwagon and going along with the crowd.
Well, I won't get anywhere by waiting until after the election, so let's get this out of the way:
George Bush's numbers have been great for over a month (depending on how you pick your polls). I've been checking out a lot of polls and, importantly, the internals of a lot of these polls. Did they talk to 43% Democrats and 25% Republicans? Did they ask 56% women and only 44% men? These things skew poll results, and while you can't predict the final ratio of Republicans to Democrats that actually vote -- particularly on a state-by-state basis -- you can be sure that the ratio of men to women will be nearly 1:1. And with Republicans are more revved up and ready to vote, a deficit in their representation voids the entire poll.
In the popular vote, I'm looking for undecideds to break for Bush. Granted, I don't know how anyone could be undecided at this point, but there they are. Maybe they just don't want to answer the pollsters questions. Final result: Bush will get at least 50% of the vote, with 51% or 52% not out of the question.
The margin of victory in the popular election will be in the range of 4-8%. Okay, I admit, that's a big spread to shoot for, but the mainstream media is still calling it dead even and "within the margin of error". They'd be calling it a "Gore race" if Gore was up 2 points even if the margin of error were 5 points. Want a more definite number? Okay, let's call it 6%.
The Nader Factor: Much of Nader's support, contrary to popular opinion, doesn't come from the Gore base. It comes from people who wouldn't be voting at all. Much the way many of Ross Perot's 1992 voters seem to disappear in 1996, many of Nader's voters wouldn't show up at all if Nader were to suddenly drop out (which he won't).
That said, up to half of his support might be the "soft" kind. That is, they actually are would-be Gore supporters and they might fly back to Gore if they get a little nervous. I'll peg Nader's final tally at 4-6%. Whether or not he qualifies for the matching funds in 2004 remains to be seen.
Most of what's left goes to Gore. Buchanan, Browne, et al will account for less than 2 per cent total.
You've been hearing talk of a possible "split election", that is, where Bush wins the popular vote, but Gore wins the electoral vote. That is, you've heard the mainstream media just about admit that Gore can't win this so they're grasping for whatever straw they can find in a lanslide.
Closest election in years?
Well, first off, let's say that I don't expect to be waiting up for the returns from Alaska to come in. And as much as I'd like to be anticipating the returns for Washington and Oregon and watch Dan Rather's face (and Brokaw's and Jenning's -- especially Jenning's) as they announce that California tipped to Bush (don't think it will happen, but I'll take it and enjoy it if it does), as much as I'd like to see this so close that Tennessee is the deciding state and it votes for Bush, I get the feeling that I'll be going to bed once I see the returns for all of the East Coast.
With Florida and Pennsylvania in Bush's column, Gore will packing up to return to . . . to . . . to wherever it is that he's from.
Final Tally: Bush will get at least 325 electoral votes. I'm looking at a possible 360 without California. I don't think he'll get more than that with California coming his way.
Granted, anything can happen when the dead walk in Chicago, but I'm not counting on Illinois either. And, of course, there will be that last-minute, face-saving push for Gore in Tennesse and Memphis could deliver it to him, but I don't think it will happen (that's just gut feeling, but some poll numbers back it up.)
States: Bush will carry at least 30 states. I'll pin it down at 34 give or take 1.
Not long ago, Democrats talked (and the media repeated) how the Dems could take of the Senate once again because of the assumed vulnerability of a number of Republican seats (open or otherwise).
But it hasn't worked out that way. It seems that they forget to count the number of vulnerable Democrat seats into the equation.
The Democrats hoped to pick up Missouri, Florida and a few other seats, while forgetting about their prospects in New York, New Jersey, Virginia and Nevada (and that's just for starters).
The number one race in the nation. Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has never served in public office in New York (nor anyone else) and hadn't lived here until after she decided to run for office is trying to claim retiring Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan's seat. She will fail.
The election is breaking toward Lazio even as Al Gore's lead is falling apart in New York. Gore will take the state easily, so he's campaigning elsewhere, but a 10% win won't carry the coattails that Clinton needs to win. An 18% victory for Gore might mean a 1% victory for Clinton, neither will get those numbers.
Rick Lazio will be the next Senator from New York.
Chuck Robb beat out Oliver North six years ago. He'll be beat this time around by a Republican without North's baggage.
The GOP will capture this open seat.
This race is even and going down to the wire. But the gut feeling and the trend is going Republican. The GOP will be victorious here.
Many have tried, but will one succeed: can an independently wealthy individual spend more money than Ross Perot and buy a Senate seat? John Corzine may manage this, but he's having trouble putting this election away and that's good news for the GOP's Bob Franks. And Bush is starting to surge in New Jersey and that could make the difference.... Or Franks may be finally making the difference for Bush. This one is a toss-up.
Sen. Ashcroft was in trouble ... until his opponent died. Some polls even put the deceased ahead of him in the race during a period when Ashcroft pulled his ads out of respect while the state mourned. But the ads are pack on and many are questioning the legality of electing a dead man (not one who dies after taking office or even after being elected but before taking office). Such confusion has even led the Kansas City Star to support Ashcroft instead of the widow of his former opponent, who has no record and who can't legally run for the race at this time.
The seat will stay in the GOP's hands.
I've maintained since 1998 that the winner of the White House will take the House as well because it's so close. Dick Gephardt even passed up a chance to run for the presidency because he thought he could get back the House. And looking at Gore's fading chances, that's all he has to hope for, but he won't get it.
But Gephardt has other problems: even as he campaigns to be the next Speaker of the House, he has to fight his way to re-election. For the first time, he has some serious competition in Missouri and isn't as comfortably ahead as he should be. It's possible that the Democrats will take back the House, but Gephardt won't be the Speaker because he won't be in the House!
But for the record, neither of those will come to pass. Bush will help the GOP keep the House (and maybe pick up a few seats), and Gephardt (unfortunately) will win re-election in a squeaker, though if he somehow lost like Gore somehow losing California, I'll gleefully accept it.
I have no prediction for the total number of seats switching hands. Real life gets in the way (I don't do this sort of thing for a living, you know.) and I haven't had time to analyze individual races or get a feeling for how the states are going.
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