There's Backwards and there's . . .

BurkeWords

Monday, September 29, 1997

You have to wonder what it's like to be Albert Gore right now. His boss is the shadiest guy to occupy the Oval Office is many years and the mud just falls off of him onto the floor. But Poor Al has that Squeaky Clean image and with any little mistake, everyone is ready to nail him to the wall. I guess dirt shows off more on a white suit than a dark one. And Clinton doesn't have rivals in Congress looking to take his job away from him in a couple of years.

That brings me to the Congressional race for 1998. Traditionally, in the years without a Presidential election, the party that doesn't control the White House picks up a few seats. This is even more common in the sixth year of a Presidency. But if there's one thing that hasn't applied much to Washington in the last few years, it's tradition. In the last few years:

A Democratic President was re-elected
A Republican Congress was re-elected
A Republican Congress was elected in the first place!
A Congress that picked up a huge number of seats in one election didn't lose half or more of them in the following election.

So we can't be too certain what will come to the House of Representatives, but we can be pretty sure of who will come to the next session: Rep. Dick Gephardt. Thinking about good, old Dick and you see the problem for Al.

If the Republicans hold on to Congress, there's nothing to hold Dick back in his Minority Leader seat in Missouri. On the other hand, if the Democrats take Congress, Dick might decide that he would rather keep the Speaker of the House job but will undoubtably use his newfound powers and larger podium as a way to test the waters and that spells even more trouble for poor, old Al.

Two Words: Never Happen.

Not in this century anyway.

Now before you start accusing me of beating up on Newt, let me explain the situation here. Hear me out because some of you out there seem to think that Newt will inherit the office when Clinton and Gore are tossed out.

Clinton is in hot water on a number of issues, but to Bill, being in hot water isn't any different from being in a jacuzzi with Gennifer. (Hmmmm, got to use that one . . . ) On the other hand, Gore doesn't know how to handle the scandal. If either shoe were to drop, it would be Gore first and then Bill.

End result: There would be a reply of Agnew-Nixon. The V.P. would step down first, essentially allowing Bill to pick his own successor before he hurriedly resigned just ahead of the impeachment vote.

This is not to say that an impeachment vote is coming (though it might be), but suffice it to say that Bill and Al aren't about to quit on the same day. Newt will never be offered the job this way. He'll have to run for it.